---
categories:
  - "[[Meetings]]"
type: []
date: 2026-03-25
org:
loc:
people:
  - "[[Darsh Shah]]"
topics: []
granola_id: 46adeff5-74c8-4e18-a56b-bdc3a2e72416
source: granola
---

# March enterprise revenue model probability adjustment and pacing review
## Notes

## Summary

### Revenue Model Corrections

- Fixed probability adjustment issue in enterprise forecasting

  - Support revenue wasn’t probability-adjusted (showing inflated numbers)
  - Changed support formula from column N to column O (probability-adjusted values)
  - Custom, royalty, and seat licensing already using correct probability-adjusted numbers
- Enterprise revenue dropped from previous projection to $343M after corrections

  - Substantial reduction due to support revenue bloating in original model
  - All enterprise revenue lines now properly hedged with probability adjustments


### March Pacing Analysis

- Current enterprise pacing at 65% for March
- Seat licensing revenue looking problematic

  - Model shows $1.7M needed but limited closed deals visible
  - Most pipeline deals stuck in contracting phase (potential legal bottleneck)
  - Small deal sizes (~$100K average) requiring high volume to hit target
- Gaming licensing tracking to $14M (vs $18M target)

  - $3M under signed target for quarter
  - Hedge adjusted from 25% to 20% for better pacing alignment


### December Pipeline Adjustments

- Major game deals requiring specific hedging

  - Mihoyo: $50M deal
  - Plyon: $5M deal
  - Konami: adjusted to 25% probability in negotiations
- December showing $55M total, may need further reduction
- Final hedge settled at 12.5% to reach $370M target


### Missing Revenue Recognition

- Dispatch game royalties not included in forecast model

  - Released in Q4 but never reported in system
  - Potential $2.5M benefit for March
  - Need to add dispatch and other missing Q4 titles to royalty forecast tab


### Next Steps

- Darsh: Add dispatch and other missing Q4 games to royalty forecast model
- Update biz ops deck with revised probability-adjusted enterprise numbers
- Save new model version as “March pacing” until actuals available
- Flow corrections through to presentation materials

Chat with meeting transcript: [https://notes.granola.ai/t/cb70997c-edf2-4d07-85f1-2db437feb6b5](https://notes.granola.ai/t/cb70997c-edf2-4d07-85f1-2db437feb6b5)

## Transcript

**system**: Probability, adjusted value.

**system**: Right. It's.

**microphone**: For enterprise it does.

**system**: Are you sure? Because when I'm looking at the formula.

**system**: The top sheet is referencing.

**system**: Column n on SF Enterprise tab, which.

**system**: Is the total price, not Z, which is the probability adjusted sale price.

**system**: I thought it would be because he has a huge pipeline and I guess, like, it made sense to me that it came down, but, like.

**system**: I don't know.

**microphone**: Have.

**microphone**: Looking at if it is actually looking.

**microphone**: Column.

**system**: Like, the first thing that's odd is, like, there's a ton of support Revenue.

**system**: Which could be fine.

**system**: But I wasn't able to find that much on the sf tab, like maybe 2 million worth.

**microphone**: Oh, so okay I think.

**microphone**: Here's the thing.

**microphone**: I can just share my screen.

**microphone**: Real quick.

**microphone**: So you're saying.

**microphone**: Yeah can you find me to a number that like looks.

**microphone**: Weird like a specific number?

**system**: Yeah. Okay, let's go to 46 in December for support.

**microphone**: Okay.

**microphone**: Good let's do that so perfect so it's all coming from here.

**system**: Yeah, let's go down. You could track it down.

**microphone**: This pulls the column n in case it is actual numbers.

**microphone**: Right but like if it is not like so if this value is not actual if it is facing I actually pulled it from the pipeline tab as in from the enterprise deals tab okay.

**system**: Okay.

**system**: But the Enterprise deals tab also still reflects column.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: N.

**microphone**: Yeah so I think here it is right the you want to look at this number and that is.

**system**: Ine.

**microphone**: Okay.

**microphone**: R.

**microphone**: If I just go to enterprise deals.

**microphone**: And look at this okay so I see I see what's happening I am.

**system**: Is this the adjusted value?

**microphone**: I have a probability adjusted the custom revenue and the seat licensing revenue.

**microphone**: But I have not probably adjusted the support numbers yet.

**microphone**: And that's why.

**system**: Yeah, I think the support looks odd.

**microphone**: The difference so yeah so so if you look at custom here that's coming from column o.

**microphone**: K which is the probability adjusted number.

**microphone**: Then let's look at the royalty that is also coming from.

**microphone**: O.

**system**: You're using the royalty product.

**microphone**: Ops yeah.

**system**: Right?

**system**: Yeah. Okay. That's strong enough. Yep.

**microphone**: Yes and the seats are also coming from column o false support.

**microphone**: I just kind of just go down here.

**system**: It does also, like, look like a weird pop because you're. You're not getting that many month over month.

**microphone**: And yeah.

**microphone**: So let me just change that to column o.

**microphone**: K I think it's yeah so it's a support support is a problem yeah and I need to show the probability adjusted number let me make that fix very quick.

**system**: Yeah.

**microphone**: Okay.

**microphone**: So some product.

**microphone**: Support.

**system**: That was insane. That was such a long formula. You just remember that?

**microphone**: Yeah because it's all like set up in a way that I can just copy so yeah there's still going to be a pop in December.

**system**: Yeah, this is right. I looked at 2-2 and I was like, yeah, I got the tutu.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Okay.

**system**: Yeah, you could say overwrite. You could override the changes on this.

**microphone**: Okay.

**system**: That substantially reduces enterprise, actually. Like, because there was a ton of support in there.

**microphone**: I think they end up bloating the deal value and like adding a bunch of that to support.

**microphone**: So if you undive while I am yeah I should have hedged like all the lines I just asked like custom and seeds yes.

**system**: Let's see.

**system**: Custom.

**system**: S. So now we've hedged.

**microphone**: All of them.

**system**: Like.

**system**: All of it.

**microphone**: Now yeah yeah let me also just make sure twin motion is yeah twin motion is probability adjusted as well.

**system**: Which is good.

**system**: Okay.

**microphone**: And capturing reality as well.

**system**: Let me.

**system**: Take a look.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Now.

**system**: We are.

**system**: 343. Okay, now he's coming up short. This makes sense.

**microphone**: So we are at 343.

**microphone**: Now.

**system**: 343 now. Yeah.

**system**: Does this change March three and a half? This does sort of change March.

**system**: Before. I mean, it's still three five, but before I was.

**system**: Excluding royalty licensing, I should just include royalty.

**system**: So it's a three five. I guess it still makes sense.

**microphone**: Pi2.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Okay.

**microphone**: Yeah the royalty right now is like just the 2.2 million by 12.

**system**: Yeah. Okay.

**system**: I don't know how they're going to close one seven of seat licensing. I don't like. I don't see that much closed in March so far. And we have, like, less than a week left.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Well, we have a week, I guess.

**system**: No.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Okay.

**microphone**: How is that how much do we have today?

**system**: I mean, this sort of.

**system**: Me.

**system**: This sort of also means I need a hedge games less.

**microphone**: Yeah we did add a 25 right I think we brought it up from 20 so we could probably go back to.

**microphone**: 20.

**system**: We could go back to 20. Yeah, that makes sense.

**system**: It would show that they're pacing ahead.

**microphone**: Right.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Okay, I need to flow this through.

**system**: To. Let me float. Okay, this all makes sense. I'm trying to think if I need you for anything else. I need to flow this through.

**system**: Too.

**system**: Okay. What does pacing now say?

**system**: 65.

**system**: Okay, I need to change some numbers.

**microphone**: Oh seats is bad.

**microphone**: Yeah see see see revenue this month is looking very bad like.

**system**: Yeah. So I don't.

**microphone**: Just.

**system**: It's. It's like such a deviation from what our model is pacing to based on probabilities that, like.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**microphone**: Let me see what they have in the pipeline.

**system**: Yeah.

**system**: I mean, it should be covered theoretically by the slide.

**system**: I had, like, in the tomorrow's meeting.

**microphone**: Yeah yeah that's fair and yeah we didn't really have anything there significant.

**system**: Hyundai nap.

**system**: Ko.

**system**: Yeah, let's stop watch there.

**system**: But how does it add up in the model to, like, one seven of seat subscription?

**system**: I guess it's just a bunch of deals.

**system**: It's just a bunch of smallish, like 100.

**microphone**: Yeah it's just.

**microphone**: Yeah yeah a lot of like small deals.

**system**: Yeah.

**system**: Yeah.

**microphone**: And a lot you know if you look at my screen right now it's a lot of like deals and they are all in Contracting.

**system**: So it's like, I wonder if it's, like, alert legal hurdle right now.

**microphone**: Because yeah it's a bunch of.

**microphone**: Deals and most of it is in Contracting.

**microphone**: There's also a bunch in negotiation but those are like super small.

**system**: Man.

**system**: I feel like I shouldn't change the game hedge because that significantly impacts.

**system**: Like, what people have seen already.

**microphone**: Data.

**system**: In the biz ops deck, like where, you know, I'm talking about march. I say, like 14 of game licensing.

**system**: If I change that percent, like, it's.

**system**: Man, I'm trying to see how this model works.

**system**: 20.

**system**: Then March paces to. Yeah, we're looking at 15. Like, I can't just throw that on them.

**microphone**: No.

**system**: This means.

**microphone**: I feel like we can yeah hedge the future like months.

**system**: Yeah.

**microphone**: I would I would maybe like apply a very like maybe specific hedge in December that's when we have like 55 million right now that that could be brought down.

**system**: Yeah, I could do a specific hedge for game licensing in December.

**system**: And we could do a deal specific one.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Like. Right.

**system**: Like game deals.

**microphone**: There's me who in December plyon and there's another yeah I think those are the big ones mihoyo is 50 and ply one is five.

**system**: Five.

**system**: High oil is 50. Oh, I can't throw any more on them.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: It's a tough one.

**system**: But then I hedged a 25.

**system**: That's such a big gap.

**system**: I don't know how to.

**system**: It's 8 million. That's like. Well, 7 million.

**system**: I think. Actually.

**system**: It's not a no. Okay. Konami.

**microphone**: Yeah konami is at 20.

**system**: 25.

**system**: And the deal negotiations are at 25.

**microphone**: Oh okay.

**system**: I'll override that.

**microphone**: Okay.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**microphone**: Yeah you can just change the column J.

**system**: So. Okay.

**microphone**: In game deals.

**system**: Yeah, I did.

**microphone**: Okay perfect.

**system**: Oh, that's an ad enough.

**system**: Added so little because I had to back up. But that's better.

**system**: Look, I could say I'm like, I feel comfortable saying, like, okay versus a, like last week.

**system**: Instead of pacing to.

**system**: 350, we're at 347.

**system**: That sort of works. Okay. All right.

**system**: This works.

**microphone**: Yeah a is at 10 as well.

**system**: Right. There's an.

**system**: L.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: At 10. What are we doing here? Okay.

**system**: I changed Konami and I changed it to 25 in the model.

**system**: Right.

**system**: Okay. 25. We have a game hedge of.

**system**: It's.

**system**: 25.

**system**: Have a game hedge of 20 of the model.

**system**: Right.

**system**: Double check myself.

**system**: 25. 25 in the model.

**system**: I want to check one thing.

**system**: And, like, it's. I. It's. I'm really having a hard time.

**system**: Like, going back to the 360 or whatever, 370 Target they have.

**microphone**: Right.

**system**: In the top five version.

**system**: I take the hedge down to 15.

**system**: That only gets you to 366 now instead of 368.

**system**: 12.5.

**system**: That gets you to the free zone.

**system**: Okay.

**system**: So I could do.

**system**: Like.

**system**: 12.5 for my.

**system**: 12.

**system**: 5.

**system**: 5.

**system**: I'll just give them 370. Okay. 12.5.

**system**: Okay.

**system**: I think.

**system**: This.

**system**: That's okay. The only change I did was Konami.

**system**: And then on Enterprise.

**system**: We for the model numbers, we are now using.

**system**: Probability adjusted Salesforce values.

**microphone**: Yes.

**system**: For everything in the model. So I could claim that.

**microphone**: For for Enterprise yes for games we are doing a top side.

**system**: Yeah.

**system**: So I'm trying to.

**system**: Yeah.

**system**: I mean, as you might expect, I'm just trying to like, I have.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: To try to update this. So, like, for like this. Okay. And we're saying in our model.

**microphone**: Okay yeah.

**system**: I don't see, like, I don't do an Enterprise hedge. Therefore, in the model, what we have is equivalent to adjust the Salesforce value, which is something I could claim.

**system**: Like, I could still claim that.

**system**: Look at this Hyundai 99 sass 375. Yeah, I remember that 378 or whatever. Google 25.

**system**: Board 130.

**system**: 5. Okay.

**system**: This all looks.

**system**: Fairly right. Okay, I will go do the update now. One other thing I should check. What is. Okay, 30 million. Still 30 million for the month.

**system**: Gaming.

**system**: 14.

**system**: Other tools.

**system**: 12. Okay. I don't need to change.

**system**: This slide.

**system**: Because numbers are still the same and we're still tracking to 64 for the quarter.

**system**: And gaming game licensing is still to be 18 million.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Three under the target they signed up for.

**microphone**: Yeah that's a 10.8 include the dispatch gains we are expecting.

**microphone**: On royalties.

**microphone**: Okay so we might have like some oxide.

**system**: Oh, here you do have a good point.

**system**: I mean, okay, so that's. That's actually a really good call out. So because it's. This comes from actuals top sheet royalty forecast, royalty forecast is this tab.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: And dispatch.

**system**: Not even in here.

**microphone**: It's actually interesting.

**microphone**: Yeah can we oh because it released in the.

**system**: Q4.

**microphone**: Yeah it's released in Q4 and it never reported.

**microphone**: So I theoretically I am missing the.

**system**: Okay.

**microphone**: Q4 heavy haters in this forecast.

**system**: Which was just dispatch, I believe. I don't remember much else. We could look back. Okay. Could you mind adding dispatch and if anything else?

**microphone**: Es.

**system**: Okay, this means maybe.

**system**: Because. Because dispatch is gonna be.

**system**: 4.1.

**system**: 2.5 million benefit in 20 March.

**system**: Interesting. So we've pre-accrude it's.

**system**: So one six of this is already in resolved two five will benefit. This means we could potentially lift this by two five.

**system**: Okay. Do you want to build that in? I mean temporarily, I guess I could take a look at this and be.

**system**: Like, do this.

**microphone**: Feel free to do that I'll back that out once I add the.

**microphone**: Title.

**system**: Okay.

**system**: I want to save down a new version as you work on that. And then we could call it.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Like March pacing, I guess, until March actuals.

**microphone**: Okay.

**system**: And then. Yeah. Okay. All right. I'll start building out the material back into the biz ops deck. Thank you.

**microphone**: Yeah.

**system**: Let me know once the model is updated.

**microphone**: Perfect.

**system**: Thanks, Darsh. Appreciate it.

**microphone**: Yeah.