--- type: output topic: ai-data-center-unit-economics status: active created: 2026-07-05 updated: 2026-07-05 source_notes: - clippings/26-07-03 substack.com CoreWeave Unit Economics, Margin Profile, and Leverage Analysis.md - clippings/26-07-04 youtube.com The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang.md derived_from: - /Users/darshshah/.codex/skills/gpt-researcher/sessions/research-c2d443210dce/report.md - /Users/darshshah/.codex/skills/gpt-researcher/sessions/research-c2d443210dce/sources.json confidence: medium output_kind: datapoint-inventory --- # Unit Economics Datapoints ## Question What datapoints help estimate AI data center revenue per GW and cost per GW? ## Fast Read The current base case is a CoreWeave-style neocloud at roughly $10B-$12B of annual revenue per GW of IT load, with roughly $27B-$30B/GW of silicon capex and another $10B-$25B/GW of physical plant, power, cooling, and site infrastructure depending on who owns the facility and how scarce the site is. The upside case in the BG2/SpaceX discussion is not lower silicon cost first. It is higher revenue per watt and faster deployment: $14B/GW/year implied for SpaceX AI, $22B-$23B/GW/year for an Anthropic deal, and $50B/GW/year for a Google deal, all treated here as podcast-model claims until the underlying chart is recovered. ## Normalization Rules - 1 GW = 1,000 MW. - Per-MW annual revenue multiplied by 1,000 equals annual revenue per GW. - Per-100MW values multiplied by 10 equal per-GW values. - TCV divided by term gives annual contract value, then normalize to GW. - "Active power", "critical IT load", "connected power", "contracted power", and "gross utility power" are not interchangeable. Each datapoint below preserves the original basis where known. ## Primary / Near-Primary Datapoints | ID | Metric | Reported value | Normalized value | Source quality | Citation | Notes | | ----- | ----------------------------------------------------------: | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------: | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: | ------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | CW-01 | Physical data center capex borne by provider in 100MW model | $10MM-$13MM/MW | $10B-$13B/GW | Local clipping from finance article | `clippings/...CoreWeave Unit Economics...md`, lines 64-68; clipped from https://substack.com/home/post/p-188613634 | Shell, cooling, and electrical equipment. Excludes CoreWeave GPU capex. | | CW-02 | Year-1 rent | $1.65MM/MW/year | $1.65B/GW/year | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 69-72 | 3% annual escalator. Comparable to landlord revenue/MW in Core Scientific and Applied Digital deals. | | CW-03 | Tenant fit-out | $75MM per 100MW | $0.75B/GW one-time | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 69-72 and 192-198 | Article ties this to Applied Digital tenant fit-out evidence. | | CW-04 | Power opex assumption | $0.075/kWh, 85% GPU utilization, 1.4 PUE | About $78MM/100MW/year, or $0.78B/GW/year | Derived from local clipping | CoreWeave clipping, line 74 | Calculation: 100MW * 85% * 1.4 * 8,760h * $75/MWh. | | CW-05 | Customer contract term | 5 years | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 76-80 | The model is contract-specific, not company-wide. | | CW-06 | Desired revenue payback | 2.25 years | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 76-80 and 190 | Drives TCV and ACV in the model. | | CW-07 | Contract TCV | $6B per 100MW | $60B/GW over 5 years | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 76-80 | Equivalent to $12B/GW/year. | | CW-08 | Annual contract value | $1.2B per 100MW/year | $12B/GW/year | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 76-80 | This is the cleanest revenue/GW base-case anchor. | | CW-09 | GPU capex | $27MM/MW; $2.7B per 100MW | $27B/GW | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 81-85 and 182-186 | Includes GPUs plus auxiliary equipment such as networking. | | CW-10 | Debt financing share | 75% of GPU capex | $20.25B/GW debt, $6.75B/GW equity | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 82-85 and 206-210 | Article rounds 100MW draw to about $2.0B. | | CW-11 | DDTL pricing assumption | SOFR + 4%, about 8% all-in | Initial gross interest roughly $1.6B/GW/year before amortization | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 82-85 | Actual interest declines as contract-backed debt amortizes. | | CW-12 | Contract-level unlevered IRR | 20% | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 101-105 and 161-162 | Base case return target for contract economics. | | CW-13 | Contract-level EBIT margin | About 35% | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 113-129 | Article uses this to argue reported EBIT can expand above 20%. | | CW-14 | Illustrative gross margin | 75.5% | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 117-127 | Used in author's Q4 2026E margin bridge. | | CW-15 | D&A assumption | 45% of revenue | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, lines 121-127 | Important because cash economics and reported earnings diverge. | | CW-16 | Recent CoreWeave revenue/MW evidence | $2.5B net new ARR and 230MW active power YTD Sep. 2025 | $10.7MM/MW/year, or $10.7B/GW/year | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, line 224 | Supports the reasonableness of the $12B/GW/year model. | | CW-17 | Older CoreWeave revenue/MW evidence | $8.3MM/MW/year as of Dec. 2024 | $8.3B/GW/year | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, line 224 | Suggests recent deals are monetizing at higher dollars/MW. | | CW-18 | Implied GPU-hour revenue in model | $3.17/GPU-hour | N/A | Local clipping from finance article | CoreWeave clipping, line 226 | Based on $1.2B revenue, 43,200 GPUs, and modeled assumptions. | | CW-19 | FY2025 revenue | $5.131B | Not normalized without exact average active power | CoreWeave IR | https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Results/default.aspx | Official result for year ended Dec. 31, 2025. | | CW-20 | FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin | 60.2% | N/A | CoreWeave IR | same as CW-19 | Cash-profit proxy before D&A and interest. | | CW-21 | FY2025 backlog | $66.8B as of Dec. 31, 2025 | N/A | CoreWeave IR | same as CW-19 | Backlog includes RPO plus estimated future revenue under committed contracts. | | CW-22 | Q1 2026 revenue | $2.078B quarterly | $8.31B annualized revenue if no seasonality; less than $8.31B/GW/year if active power is above 1GW | CoreWeave IR | https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-First-Quarter-2026-Results/ | CoreWeave disclosed it surpassed 1 GW of active power in Q1 2026. Do not treat this as steady-state revenue/GW because capacity was still ramping. | | CW-23 | Q1 2026 active power | More than 1GW | N/A | CoreWeave IR | same as CW-22 | Useful denominator, but exact GW not provided. | | CW-24 | Q1 2026 contracted power | More than 3.5GW | N/A | CoreWeave IR | same as CW-22 | Contracted power is not active revenue-generating power. | | CW-25 | Q1 2026 backlog | $99.4B | At least $28.4B/GW of contracted-power backlog if divided by 3.5GW, but that is a rough lower-bound style ratio | CoreWeave IR | same as CW-22 | Backlog is multi-year and depends on service delivery. | | CW-26 | Q1 2026 capex | $6.8B | Not normalizable without incremental GW placed in service | CoreWeave earnings transcript | https://s205.q4cdn.com/133937190/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CoreWeave-Inc-CRWV-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-7-May-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf | Capex appears before revenue as deployments are fitted out. | | CW-27 | 2026 revenue guidance | $12B-$13B | Not normalizable without average active GW in 2026 | CoreWeave earnings transcript | same as CW-26 | Reaffirmed in Q1 call. | | CW-28 | 2026 exit ARR expectation | $18B-$19B | Requires year-end active GW to normalize | CoreWeave earnings transcript | same as CW-26 | Potentially the best forward revenue numerator if active power is later disclosed. | | CW-29 | 2026 capex guidance | $31B-$35B | Requires incremental GW delivered to normalize | CoreWeave earnings transcript | same as CW-26 | Increased low end due to component pricing. | | CW-30 | DDTL 4.0 | $8.5B, SOFR + 225 bps floating tranche, fixed tranche about 5.9% | N/A | CoreWeave IR / earnings presentation | https://s205.q4cdn.com/133937190/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CoreWeave-1Q26-Earnings-Presentation.pdf | Shows financing cost compressing as contract-backed debt matures. | | CW-31 | Contribution margin timing | Negative during 1-2 month fit-out; mid-20s by month 3 | N/A | CoreWeave earnings transcript | same as CW-26 | Explains temporary margin trough during capacity ramp. | | CS-01 | Core Scientific contracted CoreWeave critical IT load | 590MW across six sites | 0.59GW | Core Scientific IR | https://investors.corescientific.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/110/core-scientific-and-coreweave-announce-1-2-billion-expansion-at-denton-tx-site | Useful for landlord-side rent economics. | | CS-02 | Core Scientific projected CoreWeave revenue | $10.2B over 12 years for 590MW | About $1.44MM/MW/year, or $1.44B/GW/year | Core Scientific IR | same as CS-01 | This triangulates CoreWeave rent/colo cost from landlord revenue. | | CS-03 | Core Scientific additional Denton capex share | $104MM for 70MW | About $1.49MM/MW | Core Scientific IR | same as CS-01 | Only Core Scientific's funded share; CoreWeave funds additional capex. Do not treat as total physical capex. | | CS-04 | Core Scientific 120MW option projected revenue | $2.0B over 12 years | About $1.39MM/MW/year, or $1.39B/GW/year | Core Scientific IR | https://investors.corescientific.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/95/core-scientific-announces-exercise-of-final-contract-option-by-coreweave-for-delivery-of-approximately-120-mw-of-additional-digital-infrastructure-to-host-high-performance-computing-operations | Another landlord-side rent anchor. | | AD-01 | Applied Digital CoreWeave lease scale | 400MW critical IT load at Polaris Forge 1 | 0.4GW | Applied Digital IR / press release | https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/123/applied-digital-announces-250mw-ai-data-center-lease-with | Initial 250MW plus later 150MW lease. | | AD-02 | Applied Digital contracted lease revenue from CoreWeave | About $11B across 400MW over about 15 years | About $1.83MM/MW/year, or $1.83B/GW/year | Applied Digital press release via StockTitan copy | https://www.stocktitan.net/news/APLD/applied-digital-finalizes-additional-150mw-lease-with-core-weave-in-j15dlbiwdx7t.html | Use carefully because source page includes AI summary, but the press release text states the lease totals. | | AD-03 | Applied Digital hyperscaler lease | $7.5B base-term revenue for 300MW over 15 years | About $1.67MM/MW/year, or $1.67B/GW/year | Applied Digital IR | https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/152/applied-digital-reaches-significant-milestone-surpassing-1 | Useful broader market rent benchmark, not CoreWeave-specific. | | AD-04 | Applied Digital Q3 FY2026 HPC hosting revenue | $44.1MM base rent, $18.9MM tenant fit-out, $8.1MM power/ancillary in quarter | If first 100MW is the basis, base rent annualizes to about $1.76B/GW/year | Applied Digital SEC-filed earnings release | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000029/apldq326earningsrelease.htm | Capacity denominator is inferred from first fully operating HPC data center; mark as an estimate. | | AD-05 | Applied Digital nine-month tenant fit-out revenue | $118.2MM tenant fit-out services | Roughly comparable to $0.75B-$1.18B/GW if tied to first 100MW, but not cleanly normalizable | Applied Digital 10-Q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000030/apld-20260228.htm | Useful support for fit-out being a material one-time cost/revenue stream. | | NB-01 | Nebius Q1 2026 AI cloud revenue | $389.7MM in Q1 | $1.56B annualized on quarterly run-rate; company ARR was $1.92B | Nebius shareholder letter | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/aa1bc2e6-df83-40cd-a6a2-95e7cda3d16c/Nebius%20SHL_Q1%202026.pdf | ARR uses last month of quarter times 12. | | NB-02 | Nebius 2026 ARR guidance | $7B-$9B | If paired with earlier 800MW-1GW connected-power target, about $7B-$11.25B/GW/year | Nebius shareholder letter and Nov. 2025 company digest | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/aa1bc2e6-df83-40cd-a6a2-95e7cda3d16c/Nebius%20SHL_Q1%202026.pdf and https://nebius.com/blog/posts/digest-november-2025 | Treat as guided run-rate, not realized revenue. | | NB-03 | Nebius contracted power | More than 3.5GW in Q1 2026, guidance raised to more than 4GW by year-end | N/A | Nebius shareholder letter | same as NB-01 | Contracted power is future supply, not current revenue denominator. | | NB-04 | Nebius earlier connected-power target | 800MW-1GW by end 2026 | 0.8GW-1.0GW | Nebius Nov. 2025 digest | https://nebius.com/blog/posts/digest-november-2025 | Useful for revenue/GW triangulation with $7B-$9B ARR guidance, but may be stale versus newer contracted-power guidance. | | NB-05 | Nebius Microsoft contract | $17.4B through 2031, up to $19.4B with additional services/capacity | About $3.48B/year base TCV; GW denominator not disclosed | Nebius 6-K | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/86625727-9e66-46c1-af79-c27d57434e3c/25-25580-1_Nebius%20Group%20N.V._6-K.pdf | Cannot compute revenue/GW without capacity. Useful for financing and contract tenor. | | NB-06 | Nebius Meta contract | $12B dedicated capacity over 5 years plus up to $15B additional | $2.4B/year base; up to $5.4B/year total; GW denominator not disclosed | Nebius press release | https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-signs-new-ai-infrastructure-agreement-with-meta | Useful TCV anchor, not enough for revenue/GW. | | NV-01 | NVIDIA content per GW - Hopper | About $20B-$25B/GW | $20B-$25B/GW silicon/content | NVIDIA earnings call transcript | https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/NVDA-Q3-2026-Earnings-Call-19-November-2025-5_00-PM-ET.pdf | Jensen Huang answer on NVIDIA content per GW. | | NV-02 | NVIDIA content per GW - Grace Blackwell | About $30B/GW plus or minus | $30B/GW silicon/content | NVIDIA earnings call transcript | same as NV-01 | Strong support for CoreWeave $27B/GW GPU capex and BG2 $35B/GW silicon order of magnitude. | | NV-03 | NVIDIA/OpenAI strategic capacity | At least 10GW of AI data centers | N/A | NVIDIA earnings call transcript | same as NV-01 | Demand/capacity context. Not a unit economics datapoint by itself. | | NV-04 | NVIDIA/Anthropic compute commitment | Up to 1GW of compute capacity | N/A | NVIDIA earnings call transcript | same as NV-01 | Capacity context; no dollar value in transcript. | | EP-01 | 1GW AI data center up-front capex | $38B/GW | $38B/GW all-in up-front capex | Epoch AI research model | https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-datacenter-cost-breakdown | Stylized US hyperscaler-owned GB200 NVL72 model. | | EP-02 | Server share of 1GW cost | 60% of up-front capex | About $22.8B/GW | Epoch AI research model | same as EP-01 | Lower than NVIDIA content quote because scope/model definitions differ. | | EP-03 | Facility/infrastructure share | 40% of up-front capex | About $15.2B/GW | Epoch AI research model | same as EP-01 | Includes non-server components in Epoch model. | | EP-04 | Annual opex | $0.9B/GW/year | $0.9B/GW/year | Epoch AI research model | same as EP-01 | Energy is the largest opex item. | | EP-05 | Annual energy opex | $0.6B/GW/year | $0.6B/GW/year | Epoch AI research model | same as EP-01 | Compare with CoreWeave model-derived $0.78B/GW/year. | | EP-06 | Annualized total cost of ownership | $8.5B/GW/year | $8.5B/GW/year | Epoch AI research model | same as EP-01 | Includes annualized capex plus opex. | | EP-07 | TCO sensitivity | 3-year IT life: about $12B/GW/year; 7-year IT life: about $7B/GW/year | $7B-$12B/GW/year | Epoch AI research model | same as EP-01 | Shows useful-life assumption is one of the biggest cost levers. | ## Podcast-Model / Investor-Model Datapoints | ID | Metric | Reported value | Normalized value | Source quality | Citation | Notes | |---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---| | BG2-01 | xAI/SpaceX operating profit per GW | Higher than Anthropic, Meta, Google, OpenAI in Clark Tang analysis | N/A | Podcast-model claim | `clippings/...BG2...md`, lines 129-139; YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx9jT2c6e3U | Need underlying chart or X post for verification. | | BG2-02 | Anthropic/Claude IRR | 55% IRR | N/A | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 129-139 | Transcript line 139 says "ARR", but context indicates IRR. | | BG2-03 | Deployment speed | xAI/Elon data center bring-up in 122 days | N/A | Podcast discussion citing Jensen | BG2 clipping, lines 143-147 and 313-315 | Relevant because speed reduces idle construction/funding drag. | | BG2-04 | Colossus initial cluster deployment | 100,000 GPUs, equipment working in 19 days | N/A | Podcast discussion | BG2 clipping, lines 249-263 | Not a financial metric, but supports deployment-speed premise. | | BG2-05 | SpaceX AI implied monetization | $14B/GW/year | $14B/GW/year | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 363-365 | Based on leaked $160B AI business expectations per transcript. | | BG2-06 | Anthropic deal monetization | $22B-$23B/GW/year | $22B-$23B/GW/year | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 363-365 | Need underlying contract denominator. | | BG2-07 | Google deal monetization | $50B/GW/year | $50B/GW/year | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 363-365 and 273-279 | Transcript frames Google as paying a large premium, possibly for first-in-line space compute option value. | | BG2-08 | Starship orbital compute density | 5MW per Starship launch | 200 launches per GW before redundancy/failures | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 407-419 | Excludes bad GPUs, failed satellites, maintenance, redundancy. | | BG2-09 | Orbital launch/non-silicon capex | About $5B/GW | $5B/GW | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 415-419 | This is not total capex unless silicon is separately added. | | BG2-10 | Terrestrial non-silicon capex | $20B-$25B/GW | $20B-$25B/GW | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 423-433 | Covers switch gears, generators, transformers, shell, power, cooling. | | BG2-11 | Terrestrial all-in capex | About $60B/GW | $60B/GW | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 431-433 | Split given as $35B silicon plus $25B land/shell/power/cooling. | | BG2-12 | Terrestrial silicon capex | About $35B/GW | $35B/GW | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 431-433 | Slightly higher than NVIDIA Grace Blackwell $30B/GW quote. | | BG2-13 | Orbital all-in capex | About $30B/GW | $30B/GW | Podcast-model claim with reconciliation issue | BG2 clipping, lines 431-437 | Does not reconcile cleanly with $35B/GW silicon plus $5B/GW launch; likely rounded or using lower silicon assumption. | | BG2-14 | 2027 AI capex | About $1.5T | Macro, not per-GW | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 803-813 | Includes estimate above Morgan Stanley $950B-$1.1T and excludes some non-Mag7 players. | | BG2-15 | AI lab revenue | About $300B next year / 2027 in discussion | Macro, not per-GW | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 809-817 | Used to ask whether capex can be supported. | | BG2-16 | AI lab gross margin | 50% baseline, maybe 60%-70% | N/A | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 813-817 | Relevant to funding capacity from operating cash flows. | | BG2-17 | Non-revenue-generating training spend | About 35% of spend | N/A | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 835-845 | Helps bridge capex spend to revenue-producing inference. | | BG2-18 | Monetization trend | Best cases moved from about $20B/GW/year to $30B-$40B/GW/year | $30B-$40B/GW/year | Podcast-model claim | BG2 clipping, lines 879-883 | Treat as directional scarcity-pricing claim. | ## Secondary / GPT Researcher Triangulation | ID | Metric | Reported value | Normalized value | Source quality | Citation | Notes | |---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---| | GPT-01 | GPT Researcher session | `research-c2d443210dce` | N/A | Tool artifact | `/Users/darshshah/.codex/skills/gpt-researcher/sessions/research-c2d443210dce/` | Use as source collector; several sources were secondary or weak. | | GPT-02 | JLL / Core Insights shell-and-core average | $11.3MM/MW | $11.3B/GW | Secondary via LinkedIn | https://www.linkedin.com/posts/core-insights-review_ai-datacenters-artificialintelligence-activity-7475525797563457536-Hrxo | Not primary JLL PDF in the run. Use only as triangulation. | | GPT-03 | AI-optimized pre-server facility range | $15MM-$25MM+/MW | $15B-$25B+/GW | Secondary via LinkedIn | same as GPT-02 | Directionally consistent with BG2 non-silicon estimate. | | GPT-04 | All-in AI data center cost range | $30MM-$40MM+/MW | $30B-$40B+/GW | Secondary via GPT Researcher | same as GPT-02 | Close to Epoch $38B/GW, below BG2 $60B/GW. | | GPT-05 | Alpha-Matica 100MW construction cost | $900MM-$1.5B per 100MW | $9B-$15B/GW | Secondary | https://www.alpha-matica.com/post/deconstructing-the-data-center-a-look-at-the-cost-structure-1 | Excludes IT equipment. | | GPT-06 | Alpha-Matica 100MW IT equipment | $2.5B-$4B+ per 100MW | $25B-$40B/GW | Secondary | same as GPT-05 | Based on H100-class GPU assumptions. | | GPT-07 | H100-class GPU unit cost | $25k-$40k/GPU | $25B-$40B/GW if 1M GPUs/GW | Secondary | same as GPT-05 | Density assumption is rough and generation-dependent. | | GPT-08 | American Compute 8-GPU server cost | $300k per 8-GPU server | $37.5B/GW if 125k servers/GW | Secondary | https://www.amcompute.com/blog/neocloud-business-model | Helpful for sense-checking silicon/system capex. | | GPT-09 | American Compute 576-GPU cluster cost | $35MM-$36MM | $61B-$62.5B/GW if 1M GPUs/GW | Secondary | same as GPT-08 | Likely full rack/system cost; may not be comparable to GPU-only cost. | | GPT-10 | American Compute CoreWeave H100 SXM published rate | $6.16/GPU-hour after Dec. 2025 move | N/A | Secondary | same as GPT-08 | Published rate card is not necessarily contract realized price. | | GPT-11 | American Compute Lambda H100 SXM rate | $3.44/GPU-hour in Feb. 2026 | N/A | Secondary | same as GPT-08 | Useful market pricing benchmark. | ## Calculation Scratchpad ### CoreWeave 100MW Model To 1GW - Revenue: $1.2B ACV per 100MW * 10 = $12B/GW/year. - TCV: $6B per 100MW * 10 = $60B/GW over 5 years. - GPU capex: $2.7B per 100MW * 10 = $27B/GW. - Physical provider capex: $1.0B-$1.3B per 100MW * 10 = $10B-$13B/GW. - Year-1 rent: $165MM per 100MW * 10 = $1.65B/GW/year. - Tenant fit-out: $75MM per 100MW * 10 = $0.75B/GW. - Power: 100MW * 85% utilization * 1.4 PUE * 8,760 hours * $75/MWh = about $78.2MM per 100MW-year, or $0.782B/GW/year. - Debt: 75% * $27B/GW = $20.25B/GW debt-funded GPU capex. - Initial gross interest: about 8% * $20.25B = $1.62B/GW/year before amortization. ### Landlord Rent / Hosting Benchmarks - Core Scientific: $10.2B / 590MW / 12 years = about $1.44MM/MW/year, or $1.44B/GW/year. - Core Scientific 120MW option: $2.0B / 120MW / 12 years = about $1.39MM/MW/year, or $1.39B/GW/year. - Applied Digital CoreWeave 400MW: $11B / 400MW / 15 years = about $1.83MM/MW/year, or $1.83B/GW/year. - Applied Digital hyperscaler 300MW: $7.5B / 300MW / 15 years = about $1.67MM/MW/year, or $1.67B/GW/year. ### Revenue / GW Ranges For Article - Base neocloud / CoreWeave model: $10B-$12B/GW/year. - Nebius guided run-rate on older connected-power target: about $7B-$11.25B/GW/year. - SpaceX/xAI podcast base: $14B/GW/year. - Premium lab deal podcast range: $22B-$23B/GW/year for Anthropic, $50B/GW/year for Google. - BG2 directional best-case claim: monetization moving from about $20B/GW/year to $30B-$40B/GW/year. ### Cost / GW Ranges For Article - Silicon/GPU capex: $27B/GW in CoreWeave model; about $30B/GW NVIDIA Grace Blackwell content; $35B/GW in BG2 terrestrial split. - Physical/non-silicon capex: $10B-$13B/GW CoreWeave landlord build; $15.2B/GW Epoch non-server share; $20B-$25B/GW BG2 terrestrial non-silicon. - All-in up-front capex: $38B/GW Epoch model; roughly $37B-$40B/GW CoreWeave-style if adding $27B GPU capex and $10B-$13B physical capex; $60B/GW BG2 terrestrial claim. - Annualized TCO: $8.5B/GW/year in Epoch model, with $7B-$12B/GW/year sensitivity depending on IT life. - Annual rent/hosting equivalent: about $1.4B-$1.8B/GW/year across Core Scientific, Applied Digital, and CoreWeave model assumptions. - Annual energy opex: about $0.6B/GW/year in Epoch model; about $0.78B/GW/year in CoreWeave-style assumptions. ## Source Index - CoreWeave unit-economics clipping: `clippings/26-07-03 substack.com CoreWeave Unit Economics, Margin Profile, and Leverage Analysis.md` - BG2 SpaceX/xAI transcript clipping: `clippings/26-07-04 youtube.com The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang.md` - GPT Researcher report: `/Users/darshshah/.codex/skills/gpt-researcher/sessions/research-c2d443210dce/report.md` - GPT Researcher sources: `/Users/darshshah/.codex/skills/gpt-researcher/sessions/research-c2d443210dce/sources.json` - CoreWeave Q4/FY2025 results: https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Results/default.aspx - CoreWeave Q1 2026 results: https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-First-Quarter-2026-Results/ - CoreWeave Q1 2026 earnings presentation: https://s205.q4cdn.com/133937190/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CoreWeave-1Q26-Earnings-Presentation.pdf - CoreWeave Q1 2026 earnings transcript: https://s205.q4cdn.com/133937190/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CoreWeave-Inc-CRWV-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-7-May-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf - Core Scientific/CoreWeave 590MW expansion: https://investors.corescientific.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/110/core-scientific-and-coreweave-announce-1-2-billion-expansion-at-denton-tx-site - Core Scientific/CoreWeave 120MW option: https://investors.corescientific.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/95/core-scientific-announces-exercise-of-final-contract-option-by-coreweave-for-delivery-of-approximately-120-mw-of-additional-digital-infrastructure-to-host-high-performance-computing-operations - Applied Digital/CoreWeave 250MW lease: https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/123/applied-digital-announces-250mw-ai-data-center-lease-with - Applied Digital/CoreWeave 150MW lease: https://www.stocktitan.net/news/APLD/applied-digital-finalizes-additional-150mw-lease-with-core-weave-in-j15dlbiwdx7t.html - Applied Digital 300MW hyperscaler lease: https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/152/applied-digital-reaches-significant-milestone-surpassing-1 - Applied Digital Q3 FY2026 earnings release: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000029/apldq326earningsrelease.htm - Applied Digital 10-Q: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000030/apld-20260228.htm - Nebius Q1 2026 shareholder letter: https://assets.nebius.com/assets/aa1bc2e6-df83-40cd-a6a2-95e7cda3d16c/Nebius%20SHL_Q1%202026.pdf - Nebius Microsoft 6-K: https://assets.nebius.com/assets/86625727-9e66-46c1-af79-c27d57434e3c/25-25580-1_Nebius%20Group%20N.V._6-K.pdf - Nebius Meta agreement: https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-signs-new-ai-infrastructure-agreement-with-meta - Nebius November 2025 digest: https://nebius.com/blog/posts/digest-november-2025 - NVIDIA Q3 FY2026 earnings transcript: https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/NVDA-Q3-2026-Earnings-Call-19-November-2025-5_00-PM-ET.pdf - Epoch AI one-gigawatt data center TCO model: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-datacenter-cost-breakdown - American Compute neocloud model: https://www.amcompute.com/blog/neocloud-business-model - Alpha-Matica data center cost structure: https://www.alpha-matica.com/post/deconstructing-the-data-center-a-look-at-the-cost-structure-1